S650 mule spotted..........with all wheel drive?

[IceGamer]

My question is though, covid aside, how might the ongoing chip shortage affect any new models? Would Ford really put out a new car without being able to guarantee their ability to put them on lots? It's very likely that supply/demand would be reconciled until well into next year, if not until 2023. If Ford can't get a good allocation of chips, wouldn't they reserve what they do have for higher margin truck sales? I wouldn't be surprised if they delay until the 24' MY, and make this more of a 13-14' type final run of the S550.

Does it affect a ‘23 model at all? If production starts in late ’22 then there might be no need to delay the S650.
Ford could prioritize high margin S650 versions like most of the electric-car-companies do. Sell the “best” product first and release the lower margin products later on.

However, a delay could very well be on the horizon… There are already many economists out there hinting at the fact that many production chains will be in jeopardy and that many businesses will have to deal with low stocks on pre-production materials/products. First production was halted due to covid and now the whole world will begin to buy stuff they couldn’t afford with money they couldn’t spent elsewhere during covid. At least here in Europe data suggests that most people have more savings than pre covid and that they are “desperately” waiting to spend the money on all kinds of stuff. Believe it or not but that could result in a plastic “shortage” – effectively increasing the price of products as there will be no plastic shortage.

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[Mikthehun1]

I wonder if they'd just take the GM route and said "screw it" to some of the chips?

You are probably correct on the trucks. If a Mustang and F150 are going to share a chip and they only got 1 for 2 vehicles, we all know which one is going to go into production.
Money talks yo.

For sure. Let's assume they would hit the 2015 numbers of ~122k. They sold 900k F150's the same year. Trucks are higher margin. If it comes down to selling:

900k F150's and 0 Mustang's

vs.

780k F150's and 120k Mustang's

My bet would be that Ford leans toward the first option. Looking back at some "new model" years:

Fox to SN95 +9k
5.0 to 4.6 -14k
SN95 to New Edge +22k
New Edge to S197 +31k
4.6 to Coyote -3k
S197 to S550 +40k
2nd to 3rd gen Coyote -6k

I know it's not a lot of data to look at, but styling seems to trump motor. My napkin math and armchair automotive industry quarterbacking says S650 is pushed to 2024.

 

[Twin Turbo]

The trouble with pushing S650 back any further is S550 sales would fall even further as it's getting very long in the tooth.

We expected a second S550 refresh for the '21MY but it didn't happen. Ford expected the facelift car to run for 5 model years ('18 to '22). Extending that to 2024 (assuming a '25MY for S650) would be 7 model years and sales would fall off a cliff.

Besides, suppliers will have S650 parts ready to roll, and I'm sure the contracts would mean financial penalties for Ford if they don't take delivery. So, if there's a delay, I'd expect around 6 months......not 2 years.

Guess only time will tell though. I'm trying to keep my glass half full, not half empty

 

[Mikthehun1]

The trouble with pushing S650 back any further is S550 sales would fall even further as it's getting very long in the tooth.

We expected a second S550 refresh for the '21MY but it didn't happen. Ford expected the facelift car to run for 5 model years ('18 to '22). Extending that to 2024 (assuming a '25MY for S650) would be 7 model years and sales would fall off a cliff.

Besides, suppliers will have S650 parts ready to roll, and I'm sure the contracts would mean financial penalties for Ford if they don't take delivery. So, if there's a delay, I'd expect around 6 months......not 2 years.

Guess only time will tell though. I'm trying to keep my glass half full, not half empty

My conspiracy theory is that the "S650" we're seeing IS an S550 refresh at this point. Think of it this way, the S197 ran for 10 years. It also managed to have 2012-2014 MY sales higher than S550 sales from 2017-2019 MY's (I'm not using 2020 as a measure of anything "normal").

As far as parts/suppliers go, we still don't know how much is actually changing mechanically. If there's not a major platform change (CD6/elements of CD6), I don't think it's a major concern. My glass is also half full, it just happens to be full of used motor oil and metal shavings

 

[Bit_the_Bullitt]

We are all going to lose our marbles with theories by the time they release the dang car!

 

[Mikthehun1]

We are all going to lose our marbles with theories by the time they release the dang car!

Ford:

JK guys, the Mach-E is the only Mustang for MY 2024 and beyond!

 

[amk91]

Your detail on dates is mind boggling, but it's greatly appreciated.

I have no doubt Covid will have impacted the original timelines for S650 but I hope it's only by a few months, like you've indicated.

The hunt for information on the next-gen Mustang has been something I've loved ever since the '10MY refresh was first spotted. I try to soak up as much information as I can, as quickly as I can. The Mustang's story is 6 chapters long.......I can't wait to read the 7th chapter

Thanks! I guess it runs in my family, that obsession with dates and historical references.

Yeah, same here LOL. It’s like whenever I see the next generation of a vehicle come out or a mid cycle update, I am like, “Okay, so what’s next?”

The S550 was very satisfying as a new car for me and met my blind expectations, but mapping out its run was very immediate for me, no thanks to Kemal Curic letting out way too early in 2014, that they were already working on the 2018 model (over 6 months before the S550 hit US showrooms).

I wanted a very conservative update with thinner, fancier LED lighting in the same layout and placement. The ”sexy“, hardass Cobra look with a Darth Vader edge was decided for 2018, but the shock factor was intense for me and I guess made me desperate for the next iteration of Mustang.

Them dragging out S650 makes it all more frustrating, so I am mining out every iota of info and chasing every lead possible, plus trying to be on the same page with everyone else to know what’s coming.

@amk91 , you know your Fords!! Seeing the Windstar prototype brought a smile to my face

Haha thanks! There are a bunch of other “classic” Ford spy shots I have, thanks to my cousin and a little sleuthing. Helps me better understand what’s happening on the inside at Ford, when those guys don’t wanna answer my harmless questions on the S650.

My question is though, covid aside, how might the ongoing chip shortage affect any new models? Would Ford really put out a new car without being able to guarantee their ability to put them on lots? It's very likely that supply/demand would be reconciled until well into next year, if not until 2023. If Ford can't get a good allocation of chips, wouldn't they reserve what they do have for higher margin truck sales? I wouldn't be surprised if they delay until the 24' MY, and make this more of a 13-14' type final run of the S550.

They could delay the redesign, but any stopgap run for S550 similar to 2013-14 is likely no longer possible at this point. 2021MY was the last chance for that.

I know we are all honestly speculating, but feasibility also has to be thoroughly factored in here.

S550 receives no more changes at this stage and would have to hold on through 2023 unchanged if anything unforeseen causes setbacks.

To do any form of a final run S550 update, is automatically a 2-model year affair at minimum and probably would need to have been decided on well before COVID impacted anything, plus come out this year as a 2022 model.

My two Ford sources had nothing of the sort to say 10 months ago, so that isn’t happening in just a few months LOL.

1 year run for another update (released 2022 as ‘23, discontinued 2023) would also be a colossal waste for a lower volume product.

The 2013 S197 update was planned as early as 2009, when S550 development began and after the 2010s were in arriving in dealers.

They wrapped up most of ‘13 refresh core work by mid-2010. I think it’s far too late for Ford to respond to anything COVID or c-shortage, without delaying the S650 until 2025MY.

These type of recent mules above in camo are also very unlikely to be for a minor refresh. Refreshes in camo are often 99.9% exact prototypes of the intended changes and are rarely cobbled together testers like for a next gen or heavy revision, with years of planning behind it.

The only cars we saw for the 2013 Mustang were these testers from March 2011 to November 2011.

The S197 cars that appeared in June 2012, were S550 mules, before the first actual cars 1 year later.

Ford has no choice but to stick with S550 currently as-is into 2022-23, regardless of any extenuating circumstances. That what-if scenario isn’t realistic, unless S650 becomes a 2025 or 2026 model.

A 6 year run of the updated for 2018 S550 through 2023, is the only thing that can happen, if S650 misses its 2022 launch year.

For sure. Let's assume they would hit the 2015 numbers of ~122k. They sold 900k F150's the same year. Trucks are higher margin. If it comes down to selling:

900k F150's and 0 Mustang's

vs.

780k F150's and 120k Mustang's

My bet would be that Ford leans toward the first option. Looking back at some "new model" years:

Fox to SN95 +9k
5.0 to 4.6 -14k
SN95 to New Edge +22k
New Edge to S197 +31k
4.6 to Coyote -3k
S197 to S550 +40k
2nd to 3rd gen Coyote -6k

I know it's not a lot of data to look at, but styling seems to trump motor. My napkin math and armchair automotive industry quarterbacking says S650 is pushed to 2024.

2024 Model Year or 2024 calendar year? The former means, it carries on with no improvements through MY 2023 a la Challenger

The latter allows for a minor S550 refresh to be quickly designed and developed, for MY 2023. Is it even worth the investment? Probably not.

Dodge’s owners cannot make up their minds year-to-year, so they haven’t had a 2011 or 2015 level of changes since for those cars

The Ford family are the ones giving Mustang a lifeline anyway, at every corner.

The trouble with pushing S650 back any further is S550 sales would fall even further as it's getting very long in the tooth.

We expected a second S550 refresh for the '21MY but it didn't happen. Ford expected the facelift car to run for 5 model years ('18 to '22). Extending that to 2024 (assuming a '25MY for S650) would be 7 model years and sales would fall off a cliff.

Besides, suppliers will have S650 parts ready to roll, and I'm sure the contracts would mean financial penalties for Ford if they don't take delivery. So, if there's a delay, I'd expect around 6 months......not 2 years.

Guess only time will tell though. I'm trying to keep my glass half full, not half empty

Exactly, sales would drop further indeed, but how are they going to build cars anyway with a shortage?

As for the aging, Chrysler is suffering the same problem in terms of an aging facelift. Back in August 2015, FCA had privately shown the next generation Charger and Challenger replacement on Giorgio RWD, designed and marked for a 2018MY launch.

The next year, Sergio delayed it to MY2019. Then MY 2021 in 2020, then MY 2023 in 2022, and then it was abandoned. Now the Charger is a car without real visible changes since 2014 (2015MY). Ditto for Challenger.

Setting those dates and failing to meet them at the 11th hour, meant they could only whip up special editions or tweaks to existing versions, because a mid-cycle update, takes years to develop.

For example, an S550 refresh for 2022 this October, would need to have been ordered by planners in 2019 at latest and fully designed by early last year. It wasn’t even on the docket, since they are replacing it very soon and didn’t give that consideration

Hackett in his quest to save $$$, skipped a minor refresh for 2021 and that means, Ford has to fully rely on the changes introduced for 2018 and press on, even in the event of another delay.

At FCA, the 2nd 2021 Durango refresh was developed, due to consistent target of redesigning it around 2023 (24) as body on frame off of Jeep Wagoneer. With the Challenger, they can’t commit to when and what they are doing down the road, so that a stopgap solution (additional refresh) can be ordered based on that being mapped out fully.

Those cars needed major changes and updated interiors for 2021MY. Still the same interior as a 2015 mode, close enough to 2011 models.

Mopar muscle is just coasting year to year with minimal changes, using the same interior design, which is adequate, but becoming very stale.


Companies have to be good at predicting unforeseen delays and risks. Ford from what I understand, made no further shorter term commitments to anything Mustang beyond Mach-E CX727 and S650 (Gen 7), after 2020.

Their focus is Mach-E and S650 right now, so any setbacks, S550 will be treated as a blip, unless S650 is delayed 2 years or more. To be honest, it is already delayed from launching in early 2021 as a CD6 car.

If they pushback anything, well it will be one year at worst in delay and means S550 becoming a bit more stale, since they cannot whip up another refresh in a few weeks.

People have to be a bit more realistic in likelihoods.

Any 2 year delay suggestion is so far-fetched and not even amusing, being it defies reality and feels like the doomsday BS I criticized a few days ago LOL. At that point they would have to state something.

My conspiracy theory is that the "S650" we're seeing IS an S550 refresh at this point. Think of it this way, the S197 ran for 10 years. It also managed to have 2012-2014 MY sales higher than S550 sales from 2017-2019 MY's (I'm not using 2020 as a measure of anything "normal").

It is not as simple as that I imagine, as it is still a regular Full Model Change, not another/an S550 refresh. If you want to call it that, then why not call the current car an S197 refresh as well? They all use the same platform anyway.

From the little I know semi-officially, it is somewhere between 2009 vs 2010 and S550 vs S197 or as someone claimed, 9/10ths the changes of 2015 vs 2014. The S550 was mostly a heavy reskin, not as ground breaking as claimed a decade ago.

Ford is not going to put out a car that barely looks different from the S550 and call it a new generation. They didn’t do that for 1994 nor 2015, despite using the same basis as their predecessor. It’s not the case here thankfully.

 

[amk91]

Does it affect a ‘23 model at all? If production starts in late ’22 then there might be no need to delay the S650.
Ford could prioritize high margin S650 versions like most of the electric-car-companies do. Sell the “best” product first and release the lower margin products later on.

However, a delay could very well be on the horizon… There are already many economists out there hinting at the fact that many production chains will be in jeopardy and that many businesses will have to deal with low stocks on pre-production materials/products. First production was halted due to covid and now the whole world will begin to buy stuff they couldn’t afford with money they couldn’t spent elsewhere during covid. At least here in Europe data suggests that most people have more savings than pre covid and that they are “desperately” waiting to spend the money on all kinds of stuff. Believe it or not but that could result in a plastic “shortage” – effectively increasing the price of products as there will be no plastic shortage.

I imagine that Ford have now built or are soon to hand-assemble their first prototypes of the S650 and have them making the rounds at private grounds, before going out in camo for photographers in a few months.

Those prototype cars are low volume by comparison, but how much would it affect pre-production builds 1 year from now which have to be built in much higher numbers before Job 1?

If they have to delay again, it would be maybe an April 2023 launch? Or maybe late 2023? If that happens, it just means we have to wait longer and skip buying a new car until then.

A 2025 S650, would warrant some more stopgap changes for the S550, as selling the same exact car from late 2017 to late 2024 would hurt sales badly as TT said.

Like many others (outside of the Mach 1), I have no interest in another brand new S550 for myself. I want something new enough and maybe more refined with the same, basic Mustang formula. Not a 2023 car that looks 99.9% the same as a used 2018 at $50-60k.

Ford needs to make S650 happen by end of next year, as the 2018 was a much lighter mid-cycle update than the 2010 big redo. It was meant to run 3 years and not even 5, let alone 6-7 years. It’s getting old, even with Mach 1 and GT500.

Unlike the Challenger, S550 has way more modern cues, which subject it to higher obsolesce.

 

[Mikthehun1]

@amk91

Good points all round. I will say the switch to IRS was a pretty big deal, even if the car didn't change "platforms". They've done quite a lot with what they have. If we're going down the rabbit hole, the S550 has gone full circle, back to the DEW98 roots as a RWD/IRS car.

 

[shogun32]

Let's assume they would hit the 2015 numbers of ~122k

no way in hell. They'd be lucky to sell 60k IMO.

 

[amk91]

@amk91

Good points all round. I will say the switch to IRS was a pretty big deal, even if the car didn't change "platforms". They've done quite a lot with what they have. If we're going down the rabbit hole, the S550 has gone full circle, back to the DEW98 roots as a RWD/IRS car.

Exactly, I wonder if it was a bit of plug and play, since back in 2001, the S197 was still IRS and heavily DEW98, yet pretty much already designed based on photos then?

As I mentioned, yes it was a big highlight, as once it was known IRS would really be coming this time, media ran with it and made it seem like Ford was reinventing the wheel.

I felt really misled, as I got 99.9% of what wanted in S550 powertrain and design, but new bones is what wanted most, like buyers in late 2004 got in the new 2005. No more rickety Fox, but a cutdown Jag after 31 years since the first gen wrapped.

The day summer ‘13 spy shots leaked the S550 front end in vinyl wrap on that track on 6G, I basically saw the front end I had dreamed about in a sea of awful renderings for a year (with an exception of 3 who had excellent foresight).

A year later as production began, I was very disappointed to get confirmation it was the same platform, which made NVH and build quality a possible concern.

Ford and their business decisions never seem to be thoroughly deliberate, but repeat themselves. From MN12 to CD6, they seem insecure over RWD.

The underlying Mustang platforms seem to end up being used for a quarter century as seen in Fox (1978-2004) and now D5/D2C (2004-2028), which the latter is much more sophisticated (which is why I got one).

Mustang II of Pinto was the shortest one ever (1973-78). They keep canceling and repeating the same BS. I see a pattern also, with how no info is out there.

Ford refused to mention or discuss anything Bronco in most of 2019, once they locked in the final design in late 2018, but only did so after they revealed the Mach-E.

Looks like they are trying to keep the focus on the forever delayed Bronco until that is in dealers and maybe that explains the S650 silence?

Really sad how sales keep dropping, so I hope S650 does something to get the general public more engaged again with Mustang.

Really worried that this chip shortage situation could extend into the pre-production phases next year and make this a 2024 model at the last minute.

Using the new signal/fog lighting units of the Mach 1 across the 2021 lineup would’ve been nice. They are better than both 2015-17 and regular 2018-22, that a Mach 1 is really good looking compared to GT500.

 

[Twin Turbo]

Really sad how sales keep dropping, so I hope S650 does something to get the general public more engaged again with Mustang.

I think the Mustang faithful will engage with S650, even if it takes some a while to accept the styling (I'm not looking forward to 6-12 months worth of "it doesn't look like a Mustang" comments!!). I think the fact this is very likely the last ICE Mustang will ensure an extra level of popularity.

But the general public? They seem happy in their SUV/Crossover blobs

Really worried that this chip shortage situation could extend into the pre-production phases next year and make this a 2024 model at the last minute.

That would NOT be good news. As much as I still love S550, its getting stale. That's why I was convinced we were going to see a '21MY refresh alongside the Mach 1. If that had happened (just as we saw a mild refresh for the '13/'14MYs), an additional delay to S650 wouldn't have been such an issue. As it is, S650 can't come soon enough, in my opinion.

 

[Bit_the_Bullitt]

I think the Mustang faithful will engage with S650, even if it takes some a while to accept the styling (I'm not looking forward to 6-12 months worth of "it doesn't look like a Mustang" comments!!). I think the fact this is very likely the last ICE Mustang will ensure an extra level of popularity.

But the general public? They seem happy in their SUV/Crossover blobs





That would NOT be good news. As much as I still love S550, its getting stale. That's why I was convinced we were going to see a '21MY refresh alongside the Mach 1. If that had happened (just as we saw a mild refresh for the '13/'14MYs), an additional delay to S650 wouldn't have been such an issue. As it is, S650 can't come soon enough, in my opinion.

Yeah, at this point I'm not sure how much more with the S550 they can really do. I think they've ran out of trims/editions you can get without making them all look the same or diluting it. I guess I keep forgetting the generation is now 6-7yrs old...

Yeah, I refuse to buy into the SUV blob game. But, I totally understand why people buy them. I'm just lucky enough to not need it and daily my Bullitt.
Reading the "last ICE" makes me sad. I'm not against improvements and environmentally more sound vehicles, but it still saddens me. :( Where's the synthetic fuels and hydrogen conversions and all?

 

[Mikthehun1]

...I think the fact this is very likely the last ICE Mustang...

Fact?

 

[amk91]

Fact?

I hope not, but seems to be leaning that way. Mustang numbers grew mostly on the strength of going international, but went down domestically.

All the anti-ICE legislation is not helping, something I say as young guy who leans center-left and feels at odds with this eagerness to ban ICEs, creating a domino effect.

I think that Ford FCA and GM need to lobby for exemptions on performance vehicles. I can understand commuter vehicles, family sedans and crossovers being forced to adapt, but lower volume sports cars and performance vehicles being excused, the way that large trucks are.

Problem is, Mustang powertrains are shared and not bespoke. The need to go EV with Generation 8 feels premature.

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